BJP to get a majority in Karnataka, Congress government may fall
The latest Karnataka opinion poll conducted by Daily News 60 has thrown up some surprising results. As per these results, there will be no hung assembly in Karnataka. Many earlier opinion polls had claimed that there will be a hung assembly, with the Congress set to be the single largest party. Instead, our opinion poll reflects that the BJP will get a majority on its own and will win between 117 to 137 seats in the 224 member assembly. The Congress will get between 50 to 70 seats while the JD(S)-BSP combine will get 30 to 50 seats. Hence, there is a chance that the Congress government may fall in the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections.
As per this study, BJP will secure 35 to 40% vote share in Karnataka. The Congress is likely to get 30 to 35% votes while the JD(S)+BSP alliance is set to get 25 to 27% votes.
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Opinion polls are often far off the mark in India. For example, in the last UP assembly elections, several opinion polls had predicted that the Congress-SP combine will be the single largest group with about 180 to 190 out of 403 seats. BJP and allies had been predicted to get only about 120 to 130 seats. When the actual results emerged, BJP and its allies together secured 325 seats in the 403 member assembly, i.e. over 80% of the seats. Congress-SP could win only 54 seats.
Similarly, in the Tripura assembly elections, several opinion polls had predicted that the Left Front led by the CPI(M) would retain power in the state despite the BJP alliance gaining ground and pushing the Congress to 3rd position. When the final tally emerged, the BJP alliance secured more than 70% of the seats while the Congress was completely wiped out.
It is clear then that superficial opinion polls are not sufficient to grasp the complexities of the Indian electoral battlefield. Unlike other opinion polls, our survey does not comprise any superficial study and analysis. Our opinion polls and forecast are based on detailed interviews and tracking of a randomised sample of voters spread across Karnataka. This detailed analysis has thrown up some very interesting results.
As per our study, the BJP will secure 35 to 40% vote share across Karnataka and win 117 to 137 seats in the 224 seat assembly.
The Congress will secure 30 to 35% votes and get between 50 to 70 seats while the JD(S)-BSP combine will get 25 to 27% votes and 30 to 50 seats. Hence, the Congress government may fall in the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections.
Interestingly, the BJP gets the highest support among the youth, which suggests that the issue of creation of jobs is not a major issue for most voters. The perceived inaction of the state government comes across as the single most important issue for most voters. BJP’s accusations of corruption in the state government also appear to have touched a chord with voters. Granting of minority status to Lingayat community also does not appear to be yielding desired results for the Congress.
These developments together appear to be working in the BJP’s favour. Hence, it is expected that the BJP is going to wrest control of one more Indian state.
With just 4 days left for the Karnataka elections, all eyes are now on the voters of this southern state. We at Daily News 60 will keep bringing you the latest news and views on the Karnataka assembly elections.