BJP to get a majority in Karnataka, Congress government may fall

 

The latest Karnataka opinion poll conducted by Daily News 60 has thrown up some surprising results. As per these results, there will be no hung assembly in Karnataka. Many earlier opinion polls had claimed that there will be a hung assembly, with the Congress set to be the single largest party. Instead, our opinion poll reflects that the BJP will get a majority on its own and will win between 117 to 137 seats in the 224 member assembly. The Congress will get between 50 to 70 seats while the JD(S)-BSP combine will get 30 to 50 seats. Hence, there is a chance that the Congress government may fall in the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections.

As per this study, BJP will secure 35 to 40% vote share in Karnataka. The Congress is likely to get 30 to 35% votes while the JD(S)+BSP alliance is set to get 25 to 27% votes.

Now, you too can share your views.

Head over to our Twitter, participate in the poll, post your comments and get your views and opinions heard.

Click here

 

Poll methodology:

Opinion polls are often far off the mark in India. For example, in the last UP assembly elections, several opinion polls had predicted that the Congress-SP combine will be the single largest group with about 180 to 190 out of 403 seats. BJP and allies had been predicted to get only about 120 to 130 seats. When the actual results emerged, BJP and its allies together secured 325 seats in the 403 member assembly, i.e. over 80% of the seats. Congress-SP could win only 54 seats.

Similarly, in the Tripura assembly elections, several opinion polls had predicted that the Left Front led by the CPI(M) would retain power in the state despite the BJP alliance gaining ground and pushing the Congress to 3rd position. When the final tally emerged, the BJP alliance secured more than 70% of the seats while the Congress was completely wiped out.

It is clear then that superficial opinion polls are not sufficient to grasp the complexities of the Indian electoral battlefield. Unlike other opinion polls, our survey does not comprise any superficial study and analysis. Our opinion polls and forecast are based on detailed interviews and tracking of a randomised sample of voters spread across Karnataka. This detailed analysis has thrown up some very interesting results.

The results:

As per our study, the BJP will secure 35 to 40% vote share across Karnataka and win 117 to 137 seats in the 224 seat assembly.

The Congress will secure 30 to 35% votes and get between 50 to 70 seats while the JD(S)-BSP combine will get 25 to 27% votes and 30 to 50 seats. Hence, the Congress government may fall in the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections.

Interestingly, the BJP gets the highest support among the youth, which suggests that the issue of creation of jobs is not a major issue for most voters. The perceived inaction of the state government comes across as the single most important issue for most voters. BJP’s accusations of corruption in the state government also appear to have touched a chord with voters. Granting of minority status to Lingayat community also does not appear to be yielding desired results for the Congress.

These developments together appear to be working in the BJP’s favour. Hence, it is expected that the BJP is going to wrest control of one more Indian state.

With just 4 days left for the Karnataka elections, all eyes are now on the voters of this southern state. We at Daily News 60 will keep bringing you the latest news and views on the Karnataka assembly elections.

56 Comments

  1. It is not surprise taking into account the present government involvement in deep roots of corruption and bad governance. Most of the crimes committed by Congo’s are protected by Cm. Touch wood if it happens good for the state and subjects.

    • Definitely it is because of C M Siddaramaiahs inaction to protect most corrupt persons and inaction in so many political murder cases became most ever unpopular CM ,further people have compared UtterPradesh CM action in road Romeo cases And action on criminals by encounter with that of inaction CM of Karnataka .

    • After long time,, listening to different media survey it seems like hung assembly will came to power, now after reading ur survey I am very happy, vote for modi ….

  2. Great Excellent With your survey the words of Amith Shaji that an undercurrent is passing on among the electorate proved right
    We are eagerly awaiting the humiliating defeat of Corrupt anti Hindu anti national goondagardi pro Pakistani jihadi supporter arrogant Khangress by forfeiting their security deposits.
    We wish Mr Sidramaiah, George, Dinesh Gundu Rao,Ralalinga Reddy,Roshan Baig, Harris and Ugrappa lose their security deposits and taste the defeat.
    With these defeats their political histories must be closed permanently.

  3. This is probably true.various factors are against congress. The incumbency, boomerang of lingayat minority status in North Karnataka,KG george,muslim appeasement with shadi bagya,steel bridge fiasco and floods in Bangalore areas ,Ambarish and SMKrishna factor in Mandya, Amit Shah And Modi carpet bombing canvassing , communal divide in Mangalore regions ,etc are factors which are going to produce unexpected results.

  4. I like this survey it is a dream of our honourable PM Narendra Modiji. It comes true in few days to count. Within five years we can change the overall development of karnataka with smart cities concept. That too our Bangalore.I pray in Bharatmaatha to happen this.

    • Congratulations for predicting that people of Karnataka have faith in Modi rather than Siddaramaiah.wish to be come true.Pray Lord to give good sense to BJP local elected leaders not to infight and bring bad name to Modi or BJP.prove that they should govern in a good manner if not possible they should quit.Don’t hang to power.

    • Hey bashir. I m bit apprehensive abt ur naively asking the poorest pm who is self defined n down the line no corruption viz his family. Moreover he’s bringing MALOYA n taken strict actions vis moea. What more u want. Any good pro poor nationalist Indian n proud kannadian would definitely give pm a thumping support

  5. This time with out doubt BJP is going to make it single largest party. with this karnataka election results many congress leaders will take sanyas frm politics. i thnk RG has to take sanyas also..

  6. This is a very crucial election of Karnataka state. BJP MUST get much higher majority above the halfway mark and give a tight slap to Congress which is dreaming a lot for 2019 national elections to make one moron Prime Minister without any qualification, experience and maturity. India needs PM Modi for another 10 years to make it a super power. I sincerely hope your predictions come true. And Congress is driven out of Indian politics which is made totally corrupt by Gandhi Dynasty and their Chamchas,

  7. With persistent efforts of Honorable Prime Minister of India and BJP President Amit Shah ji BJP is definitely moving for victory in Karnataka. Congress is engaged to divide the Hindus and appease Muslims. A large sector of Muslim women are going to vote for BJP on Triple Talaq issue.

    BJP will get absolute majority in Karnataka without any doubt.

  8. Though all the politicians are corrupt, otherwise they cannot sit in their chair including BJP candidates,but BJP is better amongst the worst,ie Congress. Congress politicians can do anything and everything for power. They absolutely have no conscience,and can only be bracketed as cattle class as rightly mentioned by Shashi Taroor(who’s hands are blood stained). Your survey should come good for humanity as a whole and for the people of Karnataka.Let’s hope for the best and pray God that better sense prevail on the voters.

  9. It is almost near to my thought.The so-called English channels predictions are based on irrelevant questions they ask according to their loyalty to particular party but fails grasp the under current boothlevel.Even body language of campaigner also affects the voter. In this count Modi & Amit sha are far ahead Ra. Ga whose body language does not synchronize his words & looks pale.

  10. It is good for the state & nation if one party is in power that is BJP.Center can work in tandem with state’s requirements & good understanding will be there.Non corrupt true leader like Mr.Modi must win along with BJP in Karnataka to see the further improvement in all the areas.Congress has ruled already for 60 years & has done nothing except all types of scams & has encouraged bank looters,death of honest & sincere officers during their regime. I wish all the best for BJP.

  11. BJP. Is going to romp home to victory with a three fourth majority relegating Congress to its worst ever performance in karnataka. We are eagerly awaiting for 15 th may to celebrate the inevitable

  12. We all looks for overall development works with quality not in quantity. Once elected Govt.has to take care all are equally rights to get benefit. But present scamngress rulers suppressed majority of community and promoting only VOTE Bank minority community. That made annoy public each other in last 5 years. Now we wants major changes to get new Govt.under Hon.PM.Modiji’s visions of national developments, Sabb ka sath, Sabb ka vikas.That is only BJP in Karnataka State.

  13. My view is that Midiji will have absolute control over BSY and he will ensure a clean and efficient governance like in centre. I am sure, BJP will get about 125 seats and form government and hope that all woos of Bangalorean problem Karnataka farmers pdlriblems are sorted out. It will be a non corrupt government

Leave a Reply